NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Final

The 9-7 Giants are your Super Bowl Champions in a season where mediocrity ruled and the only theoretically good team, the Packers, showed their flawed defense was flawed enough to not win it all. Just think, the Super Bowl loser, the 13-3 Patriots, only beat ONE team with a winning record all season, the Ravens, in the AFC Championship game, thanks to a missed field goal.

So yes, the Giants are the champions, but who do the power ranks say the best team is?

drum roll....

It's the San Francisco 49ers. As a fan, it both hurts to see them end up as #1 without a Super Bowl title but also makes me feel good about their chances in the coming years. The Patriots loss in the Super Bowl knocked them out of the top spot, moving up the Niners. The Giants passed the Ravens for #3, but their 9-7 record made it basically impossible to catch either of the 13-3 teams that at least made it to their conference championship games.

The power ranks did pretty poorly predicting playoff game results this year, going only 6-5. In contrast, my randomly picking dog also went 6-5 and my 4 month old son went 7-4 by correctly picking the Giants in the Super Bowl. If nothing else, the playoffs were fun for watching his motor skills develop as he tried to pick up the helmets with his hands.

Here are the final ranks:

Yeah, OK, so these picks are late

I will be completely honest with this one. I thought the Ravens will win the AFC Championship game, and I had thought that before the game began, because the Patriots haven't played well against good teams all year. The Ravens, on the other hand, have played to their opponent all year. With 8 minutes left in the game, I will continue to say the the winner of the AFC championship will be  the Ravens.

(Moments after typing this, Brandon Spikes got a backbreaking INT for the Patriots. Oops.)

In the NFC Championship game, I have to pick the 49ers. It's an easy pick, really. It's going to be rainy in San Francisco, and the Giants aren't a good enough running team to endure the inclement weather. The 49ers, at home, can rely on the West Coast offense. No deep drops should negate the Giants pressure, and Frank Gore is going to be able to run on the Giants just enough. I actually think this is going to be a pretty bad game.

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Divisional Playoffs

I'd like to start the power ranks post by wishing a very happy birthday to....me! Yes, it's my birthday and now I officially have less than a year left in my 20s. Kind of depressing. However, I do have a chance to see my favorite team, the 49ers, make it back to the Super Bowl for the first time since I was in 6th grade this weekend!

Why do I like the 49ers, since I'm from Chicago? Well, since my dad is a south-sider, he grew like the Cardinals and hating the north side Bears. When the Cardinals moved to St. Louis, he starting liking the AFL instead and rooted for the Raiders. As a kid, he always told me bad things about the Bears so I had the freedom to pick my own team. Red was easily my favorite color, and on my 2nd birthday, 27 years ago today, the 49ers won their 2nd Super Bowl with a blowout win over the Dolphins, and I was a fan for life.

Now, I have a son of my own, and the possibility of a weird coincidence can happen. My dad's favorite team, the Raiders, won the Super Bowl at the end of the 1983 season, the year I was born, and now there is a chance that my favorite team can win the Super Bowl the year my son was born. (And if they don't do it this year but somehow win in the next year, I can still say the same fact on the technicality that our favorite teams won during the first full seasons of our son's lives, since I was born 3 days before the 1982 AFC/NFC Championship games and my son was born just before Week 4 this year).

So I guess we can move on to the ranks. The Giants shocking upset of the Packers last week knocked them down to #4, while the Giants moved into the top 5 for the first time since Week 3. The 49ers incredible win over the Saints (I rank it as the #3 most exciting playoff moment in Niners history, behind Super Bowl XXIII and the 1981 NFC Championship, and ahead of the 2002 playoff game against the Giants and the TO catch to beat the Packers in the 1998 playoffs) vaulted them over the Patriots into the #1 spot. The Ravens moved up to #3, while the Saints fell to #6.

The Niners success helped out the rest of their division as well even though their seasons are over. Thanks to strength of schedule boosts, the Seahawks and Cardinals each jumped 2 spots and the Rams climbed out of last to pass the Buccaneers, who truly deserve to be ranked last.

So lets look at the picks for this week. Last week, the Ranks went 3-1, bringing them to 5-3 overall. My son only went 2-2, but he picked the Giants upset, making him 5-3 so far. My dog is Jake the Greek. He went 3-1 again making him 6-2 for the playoffs.

My dog is going with 49ers-Ravens and my son is picking 49ers-Patriots in the Super Bowl. Here are the rank picks:

#2 Patriots over #3 Ravens - Even though they are 2-3 in the ranks, the Patriots hold a wide lead over Baltimore, who have been inconsistent while the Patriots are looking better each week. We'll see if the Ravens superior defense can slow down this offense

#1 49ers over #5 Giants - The big difference here is the fact that the 49ers have an ultra-dominant defense and the Giants are relatively week on D and the Niners went 13-3 and the Giants were only 9-7. The Giants are trying the join the 1979 Rams and the 2008 Cardinals as the worst regular season record teams to make the Super Bowl, and the worst regular season record team to win it.

Here are the full Ranks:

Picking this weekend's games

Without further ado, let's pick some NFL playoff games, eh?


New Orleans at San Francisco: I am torn. This will likely be the best (only?) game of the weekend. Every time I have watched the Saints, they have destroyed their opponents. The last memory I have of the 49ers was a season or two ago, and they simply weren't good. Still, I know the 49ers are all defense, and the Saints struggled on the road. Against all my inner judgement.... Prediction:
 

Denver at New England: Let's see, New England destroyed Denver in Colorado once this season. Tom Brady is an excellent reader of defenses (the thing that Denver relies on). The only reason anyone thinks this game is a toss up is because they want to talk about Tim Tebow..... Prediction:

Houston at Baltimore: The Texans were fortunate to draw the Bengals in round one, no doubt, but they are on a third string QB facing one of the top defenses in the league. Also, I picked the Ravens to the Super Bowl.
Prediction:

New York Giants at Green Bay: The Giants have a history of defeating elite teams when they really shouldn't! The Giants have a history of beating the Packers in the postseason! Prediction....

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 17

I think I need to kick off this post by saying I can't believe we've been doing this for 7 years now! We started this site (well, the old site) on January 5, 2005. Here we are, 3,505 posts later! (mostly by Ryan)

The NFL season has reached the playoffs, and the regular season power ranks are complete, but fear not, just like in previous seasons, the ranks will continue through the playoffs.

One downside to the power rank formula is that it has no way of accounting for teams that play poorly in Week 17 because their playoff spot is locked in. This happened to the Packers this week. Even though they won the game and scored a ton of points, the Lions offense made the Packers bad defense statistically worse and despite finishing 15-1, it cost them the #1 spot in the ranks going into the playoffs. Replacing them is none other than the Patriots, the #1 seed of the AFC. The remaining top 5 teams remained the same (49ers #3, Saints #4, Ravens #5).

In the bottom 5, the Buccaneers managed to swap places with the Rams despite the fact that they got destroyed by Atlanta this week. The rest remained the same (Vikings #28, Redskins #29, Colts #30)

The biggest gainers this week were the Bears, who got a win too little too late and jumped 6 spots to #16, while the biggest losers were the Seahawks, who dropped 6 spots to #15 after losing to the Cardinals and finishing with a 7-9 record. Unlike last year, when that was good enough to make the playoffs, this year it put them 6 games out of first place in their division.

So, now that we are into the playoffs, let's have the power ranks make some predictions! First, let's mention the teams with byes then look at the matchups:
Byes: #1 Patriots, #2 Packers, #3 49ers, #5 Ravens - Ranks pretty much aligned with real life standings here. The Saints were #4 but unfortunately for them were the 3rd best team in the NFC

#11 Texans over #12 Bengals - The difference between these 2 teams is razor thin in the ranks, but the Texans' better overall record and stronger defense gives them the edge

#8 Steelers over #26 Broncos - Wow. This year's Broncos team could be the worst playoff team of all time. They somehow backed into a playoff spot in Week 17 AND finished 8-8. They are currently the lowest ranked AFC West team. A probable first round loss to the Steelers could actually drop them into the bottom 5 next week.

#4 Saints over #6 Lions - This is the highest rated first round matchup, but the edge goes to the Saints due to a better record and recent success. Both of these teams are similar in that they have high powered offenses and weak defenses.

#7 Falcons over #10 Giants - This is another close matchup but the Falcons have the edge for being just a little better than the Giants in every category.

Just like in previous years, I decided to challenge my formula against my dog taking interest in 1 of the 2 mini-helmets. Here are my 3 year-old Golden Retriever's picks. (He picked the whole playoffs, but I'll let him re-pick each round):
Texans over Bengals
Steelers over Broncos
Saints over Lions
Giants over Falcons

Ravens over Texans
Patriots over Steelers
Packers over Giants
49ers over Saints

Ravens over Patriots
49ers over Packers

Ravens over 49ers in Har-Bowl II. (He loves the Ravens, he also picked them in 2008)

Not to be outdone, I also let my 3 month-old son make playoff picks, by putting the 2 helmets in front of him while sitting in his Bumbo seat and having his pick be the one he touches first. Here are his picks:
Texans over Bengals
Broncos over Steelers
Lions over Saints
Giants over Falcons

Ravens over Texans
Broncos over Patriots
Packers over Lions
49ers over Giants

Broncos over Ravens
49ers over Packers

49ers over Broncos - He knows his parents favorite teams apparently. He picked mine over my wife's.

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 16

It's hard to believe there is only 1 week to go in the regular season. It should be an interesting Week 17 as well. The 49ers are looking to lock up a bye in the NFC while the Falcons and the Lions fight for playoff positioning, and the Giants and Cowboys have an NFC East showdown game (even if the Eagles are probably currently the best team in the division). In the AFC, there is a lot that can still happen. You have the AFC North and West titles on the line and the super confusing Raiders/Bengals/Jets/Titans wild card scenario.

The 49ers jumped back into the top 5 for cooling down the red hot Seahawks. They moved into #3, and pushed back the Saints to #4. The Texans, who all of the sudden seem to have injuries catching up to them, fell back to #8. The Packers, Patriots, and Ravens remained as #1, #2, and #5.

The Colts are out of #32!! Their 2nd win in a row moved them up to #30. Who needs Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck when you have Dan Orlovsky. Replacing the Colts at #32 is the worst team in the NFL. Not the Rams, not the Vikings. The Buccaneers. They've lost 9 in a row. In their 11 losses, they lose by an average score of 34-15. Yet somehow, they beat the Saints and Falcons this year. It's weird that they aren't on the absolute garbage list in the media this year, mostly because they've had their 4 wins for most of the season so haven't been in the talk about the #1 overall pick. Also, the media seems to love Raheem Morris and Josh Freeman, so I think that helps. The Bills big win over Denver moved them out of the bottom 5. Replacing them are the Redskins, who moved down to #29.

We had a shocking amount of movement in the ranks this week despite it being so late in the season. There are a lot of teams surging but are going to fall short of the playoffs and a lot of teams stumbling into the playoffs. The Eagles jumped an amazing 9 spots for beating the Cowboys all the way to #13, but they are mathematically eliminated with the Giants win, who moved up to #14 after jumping 7 spots. The Panthers have also been hot at the end of the season and moved up 6 spots. The biggest losers were the Jets, who dropped 6 spots and probably out of the playoffs, and the Broncos, who have a legit chance to now blow the AFC West.

As far as playoff projections go, all this surging and stumbling have really screwed them up, and we have a bunch of scenarios that are impossible. This is because recent success factors in heavily, and like any good power ranking, they are meant to show who is best now weighing recent success against the entire body of work. So below are the playoffs if the teams that are playing the best right now made it rather than what the scenarios are for this weekend:
AFC
1st Round Byes: #2 Patriots, #5 Ravens
#11 Bengals @ #8 Texans
#7 Steelers @ #15 Chargers
Top 5 Out: #17 Jets, #18 Titans, #20 Dolphins, #21 Broncos, #23 Bills

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #3 49ers
#9 Seahawks @ #4 Saints
#6 Lions @ #13 Eagles
Top 5 Out: #10 Falcons, #12 Panthers, #14 Giants, #16 Cowboys, #19 Cardinals

Here are Playoffs if you use the power ranks to pick the winners of Week 17 games:
AFC
1st Round Byes: Patriots, Ravens
Jets @ Texans
Steelers @ Broncos
Based on: Patriots over Bills, Ravens over Bengals, Steelers over Browns, Texans over Titans, Broncos over Chiefs, Chargers over Raiders, Jets over Dolphins

NFC
1st Round Byes: Packers, 49ers
Lions @ Saints
Falcons @ Giants
Based on: Packers over Lions, 49ers over Rams, Saints over Panthers, Giants over Cowboys, Falcons over Buccaneers

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 14

Only 3 weeks to go in the regular season, and after the Packers, we have a logjam at the top of the rankings. I'll put my TJ Yates picture up again in honor of the Texans clinching their first ever playoff spot this week. They are still ranked at #2. The Ravens got their 4th win in a row and jumped 2 spots to #3, leapfrogging the Patriots, who moved up to #4. The Saints moved up to #5, replacing the 49ers in the top 5, who dropped down to #7 after losing to the Cardinals.

Speaking of that, I happened to attend that game this week and I realized something. Going to NFL games in person is not as much fun as watching on TV. I like going to MLB, NBA, and NHL games more than watching on TV, but NFL just doesn't do it for me. I get Sunday Ticket at my house, so for about $350 a year I can watch any game I want in my living room, which has comfortable seats, cheap beer, and good company. To go to the Cardinals game, which is about 40 miles from my house thanks to the geniuses who decided to build sports arenas way out in Glendale (its really worked well for the Coyotes, obviously), I had to leave my house around 11:30 AM and didn't get home until around 8 PM thanks to the drive, parking, and traffic, so I didn't see any other game that day other than the 2nd half of the Sunday Night game. At the game itself, I realized how many stupid people there really are in the world. Unlike a lot of other sports, I feel like the crowds at an NFL game are drunker, rowdier, and more hostile (NHL is close, but your average NHL game has less at stake so its a little more tame). I don't think I'd want to take my son around a crowd like that anytime soon. For example, in the 3rd quarter, there were a group of 6 huge 49ers fans that all looked like they just were released from prison trying to pick fights with any Cardinals fan that looked in their direction. It was kind of scary. Oh, and there is nothing more embarrassing to watch than a hardcore Cardinals fan. After almost 25 years of play in Arizona most still don't understand the rules and you have to realize that they are getting overly excited about easily one of the worst 5 franchises in professional sports history (I'd say the worst, but the Clippers exist, for example). Also, the price of NFL tickets is insane. NFL Sunday Ticket is basically the same price as going to just 2 of these lovely experiences each year.

Back to the ranks. The bottom 5 are unchanged. They all suck. Bad.

The biggest gainers this week were the Falcons and Chargers. The Falcons increased their chances of making the playoffs and the Chargers are hanging in the AFC West race. The biggest losers were the Bears and Raiders, who are both 7-6 but just seem like they are absolutely done.

Playoff Projections
AFC
1st Round Byes: #2 Texans, #3 Ravens
#8 Jets @ #4 Patriots
#6 Steelers @ #11 Broncos
Top 5 Out: #14 Titans, #16 Bengals, #17 Chargers, #19 Raiders, #21 Dolphins

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #5 Saints
#10 Lions @ #7 49ers
#9 Falcons @ #12 Cowboys
Top 5 Out: #13 Seahawks, #15 Bears, #18 Giants, #20 Cardinals, #23 Eagles

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 9

[I am republishing the power ranks because I forgot they had been posted, and covered them with my own crappy posts earlier in the week. - Ryan]


Week 9 was an interesting week in that the early games were very uninteresting yesterday, and the late games all had exciting finishes. From my experience from NFL Sunday Ticket over the past 6 seasons, this usually isn't the case.

The Top 5 teams remained exactly the same this week. With the top 4 (Packers, 49ers, Bengals, Ravens) all winning and Detroit on a bye. Aaron Rodgers gets his picture here yet again this week.

In the bottom 5, the Broncos win over the Raiders moved them up and out of the bottom 5 (and shockingly only 1 game out of first place) and they have been replaced by yet another NFC West team, the Seahawks, who are now #30. The NFC West might be the most lopsided division ever this year. The 49ers are ranked #2 while the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Rams are all at least 5 games out of first and ranked #29, #30, and #31, respectively. The 49ers could mathematically clinch the division after week 11. Just crazy. The Dolphins first win moved them all the way up to #28! Oh, should I even mention the Colts at #32?

The biggest gainers this week were the Cowboys, who managed to jump 8 spots over a bunch of other mediocre teams. The biggest losers were the Chargers, who have now lost 3 in a row and fell back to .500. Does anyone want to win the AFC West?

Playoff Projections
AFC
1st Round Byes: #3 Bengals, #6 Texans
#10 Bills @ #8 Jets
#4 Ravens @ #16 Chiefs
Top 5 Out: #12 Steelers, #13 Patriots, #19 Titans, #20 Raiders, #22 Browns

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #2 49ers
#7 Bears @ #9 Giants
#5 Lions @ #11 Falcons
Top 5 Out: #14 Saints, #15 Cowboys, #17 Eagles, #18 Vikings, #21 Buccaneers

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 6

This week we have a new #1, and not surprisingly, it's none other than the undefeated Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers. The 49ers moved up to #2 by dethroning the #1 Lions, while the Lions moved down to #3, Ravens moved down to #4, and the Patriots moved up to #5 over the Bills, who lost again this week.

This begs the question....Are the 49ers for real? All of sudden they are 5-1 and running away with the NFC West. They have 5 games left against their miserable division and also get to play Cleveland and the John Beck led Redskins. If they run the table in those games, they are 12-4 and will likely have a first round bye. One thing that makes me feel good about them this year is that they are based in having a strong defense that gets a lot of turnovers, and their offense doesn't make too many mistakes and Alex Smith has turned into a good Trent Dilfer-ish game manager, which is all they need. The offense, though, isn't so ineffective that they can't score points or play from behind. I guess we'll see how it plays out...

The bottom 5 teams remained the same, but they moved positions. The idle Cardinals passed the Jaguars and despite losing 24-3 to the Packers, the Rams jumped 2 spots to #30 thanks to the strength of schedule boost of playing the 6-0 Packers. The Dolphins are now the new #32 team and if you watched the Monday Night game this week, it shows.

The biggest gainers this week were the Bengals, who are surprisingly 4-2 are beating the pathetic Colts. They jumped 6 spots. The biggest losers were the Saints, who dropped 8 spots after losing to the Buccaneers a week after they were embarrassed in San Francisco, and the Redskins, who dropped 8 spots as well after being shut down by the Eagles.

Playoff Projections:
AFC
Byes:#4 Ravens, #5 Patriots
#7 Bills @ #8 Chargers
#6 Bengals @#12 Titans
Top 5 Out: #10 Raiders, #13 Steelers, #17 Jets, #20 Texans, #21 Browns

NFC
Byes: #1 Packers, #2 49ers
#14 Bears @ #9 Giants
#3 Lions @ #11 Buccaneers
Top 5 Out: #15 Saints, #16 Redskins, #18 Falcons, #19 Cowboys, #22 Seahawks

Here are the full ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 5

Week 5 is in the books, and this is usually the time of the year where the "recent success" attribute in the calculation starts to make a difference, as you will see. Dare I try to make playoff projections based on these ranks? Sure, I'll start them this week. You probably won't be browsing the bottom of the October archives come January if they are ridiculously wrong.

This week was interesting in that the 5 five mostly remained in tact. The #1 Lions, #2 Packers, and #4 Bills all won this week, while the #3 Ravens were idle. Even the former #5 Patriots won, but they were passed by yet another surprising team that hasn't made the playoffs in a while....the 49ers, who took over the #5 spot after beating Tampa in their biggest blowout win since the days of Montana and Rice, 1987.

The bottom 5 had a little bit of movement. The Vikings destroyed the Cardinals to get their first win of the year and move out of the bottom 5. Also, the Chiefs got their 2nd win of the year over the lowly Colts to move up. Replacing them are the awful Cardinals and the Jaguars, whose win over the Titans in week 1 looks like an anomaly.

The biggest gainer this week were the Vikings, who jumped 8 spots with a dominating first win. The Steelers jumped 7 spots for beating the Titans and getting back on track. The biggest losers were the Cardinals, for the reasons mentioned above, and the Texans, who lost to an emotional Raiders team playing for Al Davis.

Playoff Projections:
AFC
Byes:#3 Ravens, #4 Bills
#12 Bengals @ #9 Chargers
#6 Patriots @#10 Titans
Top 5 Out: #13 Texans, #14 Steelers, #15 Raiders, #19 Browns, #21 Jets

NFC
Byes: #1 Packers, #5 49ers
#11 Giants @ #7 Saints
#2 Lions @ #8 Redskins
Top 5 Out: #16 Buccaneers, #17 Cowboys, #18 Bears, #20 Vikings, #22 Falcons

Full Ranks: