NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 17

I think I need to kick off this post by saying I can't believe we've been doing this for 7 years now! We started this site (well, the old site) on January 5, 2005. Here we are, 3,505 posts later! (mostly by Ryan)

The NFL season has reached the playoffs, and the regular season power ranks are complete, but fear not, just like in previous seasons, the ranks will continue through the playoffs.

One downside to the power rank formula is that it has no way of accounting for teams that play poorly in Week 17 because their playoff spot is locked in. This happened to the Packers this week. Even though they won the game and scored a ton of points, the Lions offense made the Packers bad defense statistically worse and despite finishing 15-1, it cost them the #1 spot in the ranks going into the playoffs. Replacing them is none other than the Patriots, the #1 seed of the AFC. The remaining top 5 teams remained the same (49ers #3, Saints #4, Ravens #5).

In the bottom 5, the Buccaneers managed to swap places with the Rams despite the fact that they got destroyed by Atlanta this week. The rest remained the same (Vikings #28, Redskins #29, Colts #30)

The biggest gainers this week were the Bears, who got a win too little too late and jumped 6 spots to #16, while the biggest losers were the Seahawks, who dropped 6 spots to #15 after losing to the Cardinals and finishing with a 7-9 record. Unlike last year, when that was good enough to make the playoffs, this year it put them 6 games out of first place in their division.

So, now that we are into the playoffs, let's have the power ranks make some predictions! First, let's mention the teams with byes then look at the matchups:
Byes: #1 Patriots, #2 Packers, #3 49ers, #5 Ravens - Ranks pretty much aligned with real life standings here. The Saints were #4 but unfortunately for them were the 3rd best team in the NFC

#11 Texans over #12 Bengals - The difference between these 2 teams is razor thin in the ranks, but the Texans' better overall record and stronger defense gives them the edge

#8 Steelers over #26 Broncos - Wow. This year's Broncos team could be the worst playoff team of all time. They somehow backed into a playoff spot in Week 17 AND finished 8-8. They are currently the lowest ranked AFC West team. A probable first round loss to the Steelers could actually drop them into the bottom 5 next week.

#4 Saints over #6 Lions - This is the highest rated first round matchup, but the edge goes to the Saints due to a better record and recent success. Both of these teams are similar in that they have high powered offenses and weak defenses.

#7 Falcons over #10 Giants - This is another close matchup but the Falcons have the edge for being just a little better than the Giants in every category.

Just like in previous years, I decided to challenge my formula against my dog taking interest in 1 of the 2 mini-helmets. Here are my 3 year-old Golden Retriever's picks. (He picked the whole playoffs, but I'll let him re-pick each round):
Texans over Bengals
Steelers over Broncos
Saints over Lions
Giants over Falcons

Ravens over Texans
Patriots over Steelers
Packers over Giants
49ers over Saints

Ravens over Patriots
49ers over Packers

Ravens over 49ers in Har-Bowl II. (He loves the Ravens, he also picked them in 2008)

Not to be outdone, I also let my 3 month-old son make playoff picks, by putting the 2 helmets in front of him while sitting in his Bumbo seat and having his pick be the one he touches first. Here are his picks:
Texans over Bengals
Broncos over Steelers
Lions over Saints
Giants over Falcons

Ravens over Texans
Broncos over Patriots
Packers over Lions
49ers over Giants

Broncos over Ravens
49ers over Packers

49ers over Broncos - He knows his parents favorite teams apparently. He picked mine over my wife's.

Full Ranks:

What to make of Tim Tebow

Let me start by saying that much of the criticism of Tim Tebow makes me extremely uncomfortable. The defense of Tebow generally brings about a response that is akin to evangelical atheism. Bashing Tebow for his forthright religious nature is, to me anyways, the same as a missionary bringing Christianity to the pagans. The methodology and message are very different, but the subtext is the same -- You and the way you live your life are stupid and wrong. It makes me squirm when anyone even discusses his faith and the way he practices it. So that said, I will focus instead on what I like to focus on: The game and the statistics therein.
First, I disagree with the idea that quarterbacks should be given credit for wins. I say this even as a fan of the Colts, who are winless without Peyton Manning. Football is the ultimate team sport, and it's a discredit to the rest of the team to focus the attention all on one player. I feel like the quarterback win is akin to the pitching win. Sure, the pitcher and quarterback have a lot to do with the team's ultimate success, and are likely to touch the ball almost every play, but to win, other people need to come through on offense, and the defense needs to play well.
Statistics in football and baseball are fundamentally different. Statistics in baseball generally go to show individual success, and can demonstrate how much luck has to do with that success. In football, statistics are primarily cause and effect. Stats are much more easily contorted based on the way a team runs an offense, for example. The truest way to evaluate players is the eye test, almost entirely the opposite of baseball. The eye test says Tim Tebow just isn't a good traditional quarterback.
The defense the Broncos have put forth has been very good since he came on board. A lot of this has to do with the fact that the Broncos slow the game down with their running game, but a lot of it also has to do with their two rookies on defense (Von Miller and Quinton Carter) coming of age. It's a GOOD defense, plain and simple. The offense isn't turning the ball over any more, and you can certainly give some of the credit for that to Tebow. But it's not like he's an accurate quarterback, completing less than 50% of his passes. Donovan McNabb completed 60% in his haggard time with the Vikings. The Broncos coaches, who also deserve credit for the way they are running their offense, have built their offense around the run. He has had 2 games with over 21 attempted passes, the first was an overtime game, the second was a 45-10 loss to Detroit. He doesn't throw interceptions because he doesn't THROW.
Tim Tebow is certainly a positive influence in a clubhouse that has had it's share of tumult over the past 5 years or so, from the murder of Darrent Williams, to Brandon Marshall's antics and Brandon Lloyd's grousing this year. The Broncos have also established an offense that doesn't screw things up for the defense, based around Tebow's skill set. If the Broncos didn't have a good defense, or a good offensive line, where would Tebow be?
I'll give credit to Tebow for being a hard worker, a positive influence and a talented player, but I won't go so far as to say he is the reason the Broncos have turned their season around.

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 10

Thanks to some top teams going down and 4 of the bottom 5 winning, along with a fair share of blowouts, we finally got a lot of movement in the power rankings this week. No, the Broncos aren't ranked #1 now, but somehow, someway Tim Tebow managed to climb the Broncos to the top ranked AFC West team in just a few short weeks.

With wins again this week, the top 2 teams, the Packers and 49ers are still in place, but the Bengals loss to the Steelers dropped them down to #5 and the Ravens shocking loss to Seattle dropped them to #6. The Lions got destroyed by the Bears, bumping them down to #10, while the Bears jumped up to #4. Also, with another win this week, the Texans broke into the top 5, moving up to #3. We'll see how they do with Matt Leinart now...

The Colts suck more than just about any team could suck. Now that that's out of the way, we had a ton of movement on the bottom, with all 3 NFC West teams that were in the bottom 5 last week winning, and the Dolphins getting their 2nd win of the year over Washington. The Rams remained in the bottom 5, but moved up to #28, but the other 3 teams moved up and were replaced by some interesting teams. The Chargers, who have now lost 4 in a row and a nice lead in the AFC West, are now #29. The Panthers dropped back to #30 after a blowout by the Titans, and the Redskins, who were #5 after week 2, are now all the way down to #31.

The biggest gainers this week were the Cowboys, who jumped 8 spots to #7, followed by the above mentioned Broncos. The Vikings, who ran into the Green Bay buzzsaw on Monday Night, fell 8 spots to #26. The fading Chargers and Bills dropped 8 spots

Playoff Projections
AFC
1st Round Byes: #3 Texans, #5 Bengals
#12 Steelers @ #9 Patriots
#6 Ravens @ #17 Broncos
Top 5 Out: #13 Jets, #15 Titans, #16 Bills, #18 Raiders, #19 Jaguars

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #2 49ers
#8 Giants @ #7 Cowboys
#4 Bears @ #11 Saints
Top 5 Out: #10 Lions, #14 Falcons, #20 Eagles, #23 Cardinals, #25 Buccaneers

Full Ranks: