NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Final

The 9-7 Giants are your Super Bowl Champions in a season where mediocrity ruled and the only theoretically good team, the Packers, showed their flawed defense was flawed enough to not win it all. Just think, the Super Bowl loser, the 13-3 Patriots, only beat ONE team with a winning record all season, the Ravens, in the AFC Championship game, thanks to a missed field goal.

So yes, the Giants are the champions, but who do the power ranks say the best team is?

drum roll....

It's the San Francisco 49ers. As a fan, it both hurts to see them end up as #1 without a Super Bowl title but also makes me feel good about their chances in the coming years. The Patriots loss in the Super Bowl knocked them out of the top spot, moving up the Niners. The Giants passed the Ravens for #3, but their 9-7 record made it basically impossible to catch either of the 13-3 teams that at least made it to their conference championship games.

The power ranks did pretty poorly predicting playoff game results this year, going only 6-5. In contrast, my randomly picking dog also went 6-5 and my 4 month old son went 7-4 by correctly picking the Giants in the Super Bowl. If nothing else, the playoffs were fun for watching his motor skills develop as he tried to pick up the helmets with his hands.

Here are the final ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Conference Championships

The AFC and NFC Championship games seem like ancient history now don't they? I'm not even that mad at Kyle Williams anymore. As both a White Sox and 49ers fan, the Williams family is destroying my fun as a sports fan (Kyle is White Sox GM Kenny Williams son, if you didn't know). Kyle fumbles away a trip to a Super Bowl, Kenny signs Adam Dunn to a long term contract. Fun, huh?

Anyway, I couldn't hate this Super Bowl matchup more. New York vs. Boston? Great. Plus we are dealing with an unbelievable amount of hate-ability and arrogance here. I don't even need to talk about Brady and the Patriots, and the Giants have got to be the most overconfident 9-7 team of all time, don't they? Plus, Eli Manning is technically the good guy here, but let's not forget that he and his dad threw a tantrum when the Chargers drafted him #1 over all, and his dad specifically wanted him to play for the Gaaaaahhhnts (stretch it out with a Mississippi accent). So yeah, Eli Manning is a douche too. But you know what, I'll watch it, because it's the Super Bowl. I've avoided as much of the hype as possible on TV, and it's felt great.

So let's just do the Power Rank picks right now. Last week, the ranks got the Patriots right but missed the 49ers, making the ranks a very average 6-4 in the playoffs. My 4 month old son also went 1-1 in the conference championships, so he is 6-4, and my dog went 0-2, so he is also 6-4. This week, my son picked the Giants and my dog picked the Patriots. The ranks pick...

#1 Patriots over #4 Giants

Not much of a surprise right?

Here are the full ranks:

I hate this Super Bowl

I hate the pending Super Bowl for three primary reasons. 1) The Patriots. 2) The Giants. 3) The Patriots playing the Giants. Oh? Expound? Surely.

1) As a Colts fan, the Patriots have been the biggest nemesis for the past decade or more. They are from Boston and were the first step in unleashing Boston sports arrogance to the masses. I mean, people used to LIKE Boston. Cheers! Now? Screw Boston. Screw the Patriots. Screw Tom Brady. Screw Bill Belichick. Screw their ruthless efficiency. I do not care for the New England Patriots.

2) Excuse me for saying it, but I am sick of the underdog. The underdog has lost it's luster, because in the NFL, the underdog wins a LOT. Look at the last 4 years. Three different times, a team that played Wild Card weekend made the Super Bowl, and twice, that team won. If the underdog can reach the Big Game 40% of the time, they aren't really an underdog, are they? And if they win that Super Bowl 2/3 times they make it, they aren't a freaking underdog! So I'm sorry, New York. You had a crappy season and got lucky in the end. That doesn't mean I can root for you.
Also, what about my being a Colts/Peyton Manning fan compels me to vote for Eli Manning? Just because Eli is Peyton's brother doesn't make him any less of a whiny twit who begged his way out of San Diego. What kind of douche wants to get out of San Diego?! You made Philip Rivers look good! So no, Eli, you and your Giants... no.

3) The networks really like to sell the Boston-New York rivalry when they get a chance, no matter the sport. It's compelling television, to be sure... if you are from Boston or New York. I'm sick of hearing about these teams. I feel ill that one of these two teams will be heralded as the best team in football all next season. I hate that the ticker tape parades and everything will last so much longer next year than they should, or at least, they will be covered in the media for much longer than they should be. I hate that this is a rematch, which is the most boring plot of any sporting event in the land. Just ask LSU and Alabama.

I hate this Super Bowl. But on the other hand, it's almost impossible for next year's game to be any worse than this. Bring on the bean dip!

Picking this weekend's games

Without further ado, let's pick some NFL playoff games, eh?


New Orleans at San Francisco: I am torn. This will likely be the best (only?) game of the weekend. Every time I have watched the Saints, they have destroyed their opponents. The last memory I have of the 49ers was a season or two ago, and they simply weren't good. Still, I know the 49ers are all defense, and the Saints struggled on the road. Against all my inner judgement.... Prediction:
 

Denver at New England: Let's see, New England destroyed Denver in Colorado once this season. Tom Brady is an excellent reader of defenses (the thing that Denver relies on). The only reason anyone thinks this game is a toss up is because they want to talk about Tim Tebow..... Prediction:

Houston at Baltimore: The Texans were fortunate to draw the Bengals in round one, no doubt, but they are on a third string QB facing one of the top defenses in the league. Also, I picked the Ravens to the Super Bowl.
Prediction:

New York Giants at Green Bay: The Giants have a history of defeating elite teams when they really shouldn't! The Giants have a history of beating the Packers in the postseason! Prediction....

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 17

I think I need to kick off this post by saying I can't believe we've been doing this for 7 years now! We started this site (well, the old site) on January 5, 2005. Here we are, 3,505 posts later! (mostly by Ryan)

The NFL season has reached the playoffs, and the regular season power ranks are complete, but fear not, just like in previous seasons, the ranks will continue through the playoffs.

One downside to the power rank formula is that it has no way of accounting for teams that play poorly in Week 17 because their playoff spot is locked in. This happened to the Packers this week. Even though they won the game and scored a ton of points, the Lions offense made the Packers bad defense statistically worse and despite finishing 15-1, it cost them the #1 spot in the ranks going into the playoffs. Replacing them is none other than the Patriots, the #1 seed of the AFC. The remaining top 5 teams remained the same (49ers #3, Saints #4, Ravens #5).

In the bottom 5, the Buccaneers managed to swap places with the Rams despite the fact that they got destroyed by Atlanta this week. The rest remained the same (Vikings #28, Redskins #29, Colts #30)

The biggest gainers this week were the Bears, who got a win too little too late and jumped 6 spots to #16, while the biggest losers were the Seahawks, who dropped 6 spots to #15 after losing to the Cardinals and finishing with a 7-9 record. Unlike last year, when that was good enough to make the playoffs, this year it put them 6 games out of first place in their division.

So, now that we are into the playoffs, let's have the power ranks make some predictions! First, let's mention the teams with byes then look at the matchups:
Byes: #1 Patriots, #2 Packers, #3 49ers, #5 Ravens - Ranks pretty much aligned with real life standings here. The Saints were #4 but unfortunately for them were the 3rd best team in the NFC

#11 Texans over #12 Bengals - The difference between these 2 teams is razor thin in the ranks, but the Texans' better overall record and stronger defense gives them the edge

#8 Steelers over #26 Broncos - Wow. This year's Broncos team could be the worst playoff team of all time. They somehow backed into a playoff spot in Week 17 AND finished 8-8. They are currently the lowest ranked AFC West team. A probable first round loss to the Steelers could actually drop them into the bottom 5 next week.

#4 Saints over #6 Lions - This is the highest rated first round matchup, but the edge goes to the Saints due to a better record and recent success. Both of these teams are similar in that they have high powered offenses and weak defenses.

#7 Falcons over #10 Giants - This is another close matchup but the Falcons have the edge for being just a little better than the Giants in every category.

Just like in previous years, I decided to challenge my formula against my dog taking interest in 1 of the 2 mini-helmets. Here are my 3 year-old Golden Retriever's picks. (He picked the whole playoffs, but I'll let him re-pick each round):
Texans over Bengals
Steelers over Broncos
Saints over Lions
Giants over Falcons

Ravens over Texans
Patriots over Steelers
Packers over Giants
49ers over Saints

Ravens over Patriots
49ers over Packers

Ravens over 49ers in Har-Bowl II. (He loves the Ravens, he also picked them in 2008)

Not to be outdone, I also let my 3 month-old son make playoff picks, by putting the 2 helmets in front of him while sitting in his Bumbo seat and having his pick be the one he touches first. Here are his picks:
Texans over Bengals
Broncos over Steelers
Lions over Saints
Giants over Falcons

Ravens over Texans
Broncos over Patriots
Packers over Lions
49ers over Giants

Broncos over Ravens
49ers over Packers

49ers over Broncos - He knows his parents favorite teams apparently. He picked mine over my wife's.

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 15

15 weeks down, and 2 weeks to go. This week so some top teams tumble, and it caused a shakeup in our top 5. The Packers finally got their first loss, but they remained as the #1 team (as they should have) but the #2 Texans and #3 Ravens both lost, dropping them to #4 and #5, while the Patriots and Saints moved up to #2 and #3. The #7 49ers Monday night win over the #6 Steelers moved the Niners up to #6 while the Steelers dropped back to #8. Thanks to losses by the Texans, Ravens, and Steelers, the Patriots are now in the driver seat for home field throughout the playoffs (great....)

The Colts got their first win of the year, but remained dead last in the rankings. The Redskins win over the Giants not only probably ruined the Giants season but also moved them out of the bottom 5. Replacing them are the Bills, who just 10 weeks ago were a top 5 team. They have fallen very, very hard.

The biggest gainers this week were the Panthers, who moved up 6 spots for knocking off the Texans, and the Cardinals, who are 7-7 all of the sudden. This week's biggest losers were the Broncos, Bears, and Raiders who all dropped 5 spots. The Broncos are still leading the AFC West despite losing, but now have the Chargers lurking behind them. The Raiders blew a golden opportunity to move up in the standings. The Bears are just done. It doesn't really matter if Cutler or Forte come back at this point.

Playoff Projections:
AFC
1st Round Byes: #2 Patriots, #4 Texans
#11 Jets @ #5 Ravens
#8 Steelers @#13 Chargers
Top 5 Out: #14 Bengals, #16 Broncos, #17 Titans, #19 Dolphins, #23 Chiefs

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #3 Saints
#9 Lions @ #6 49ers
#7 Falcons @ #12 Cowboys
Top 5 Out: #10 Seahawks, #15 Cardinals, #18 Panthers, #20 Bears, #21 Giants

Full Ranks:

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 13

It seems like the NFL season just started in some ways, but we are actually already through week 13. The lurking Patriots aren't lurking so much anymore. They jumped 2 spots up to #3 for their scarily close win over the Colts (they got a "recent success" bump, winning their 4th in a row). The Packers remained at #1 *yawn*. The TJ Yates led Texans remained as #2 after surprisingly beating the 7-4 Falcons. The 49ers clinched the NFC West, but dropped to #4 as the Patriots leapfrogged them. The Ravens fell to #5 based on the Patriots move despite winning.

In the bottom 5, the Chiefs and Chargers moved out of the bottom 5 and right back into the awful AFC West division race. Replacing them are the Vikings and Redskins, who seem long overdue for being in the bottom 5. The Buccaneers, Rams, and Colts remained in the bottom 5, taking the last 3 spots. Speaking of the Colts, are we actually going to have a 16-0 and 0-16 team in the same season?

The biggest gainers this week are the Panthers, who jumped 7 spots and seem to be the "bad team that rallied at the end and will get a lot of hype next year" team from 2011. The Chargers jumped 6 spots for their blowout win over Jacksonville, while the Chiefs and Titans also jumped 5 spots. The biggest losers were the Bengals, who are getting a tough schedule reality check finally and throwing the AFC Wild Card race wide open. The Lions also dropped 5 spots, but stayed alive in the NFC playoff race as seemingly every single 7-4 team in the NFL lost this week. Actually I just did, in fact, they all did (6 for 6).

Playoff Projections:
AFC
1st Round Byes: #2 Texans, #3 Patriots
#10 Titans @ #5 Ravens
#7 Steelers @ #11 Broncos
Top 5 Out: #12 Jets, #13 Raiders, #17 Dolphins, #18 Bengals, #21 Browns

NFC
1st Round Byes: #1 Packers, #4 49ers
#14 Lions @ #6 Saints
#8 Bears @ #9 Cowboys
Top 5 Out: #15 Falcons, #16 Seahawks, #19 Cardinals, #20 Panthers, #22 Giants

Full Ranks: