The Victoria Times NCAA Football Simulation (Ryan's Version)

It's that time of year again. The time that I tell you the results of the annual football simulation we run through What If Sports, run in order to find a national champion, with all decisions based on how things play out on the field. This means a tournament with only conference champions, and seeding based on results, with no polls used at any point. For a more complete information on how the simulation works, click the "simulation" tag at the bottom of the page. Without further ado, here are the results!

Dixie: Champion: Alabama (2010 - Georgia)
Good Surprise - Mississippi
Bad Surprise - Clemson
Order of finish - Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, Auburn, Clemson, UAB
Note - Alabama actually won the conference easily, thanks to South Carolina going 0-3 out of conference.

Great Basin: Champion: Oregon (2010 - Boise State)
Good Surprise - Utah State
Bad Surprise - Nevada
Order of finish - Oregon, Boise State, Utah State, Utah, Washington, Washington State, Oregon State, Nevada, Idaho, UNLV
Note - This was the highest finish for Washington State by a substantial margin. Oregon won the conference for the first time.

Appalachian: Champion: Cincinnati (2010 - Louisville)
Good Surprise - Ohio
Bad Surprise - Pitt
Order of finish - Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Ohio, Marshall, Louisville, Virginia, Kentucky, Pittsburgh, Miami (OH)
Note - Except for last year, this conference always seems to come down to Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and West Virginia.

Great Lakes: Champion: Bowling Green (2010 - Michigan State)
Good Surprise - Bowling Green
Bad Surprise: The Big Ten
Order of Finish - Bowling Green, Toledo, Michigan State, Michigan, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Ohio State, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Akron
Note - Two strong Big Ten teams, Michigan State and Michigan were abysmal, meaning this was the first time a MAC team won the conference

New England: Champion: Penn State (2010 - Maryland)
Good Surprise - Buffalo
Bad Surprise - Rutgers
Order of finish - Penn State, Buffalo, Syracuse, Temple, Connecticut, Boston College, Rutgers, Navy, Maryland, Army
Note - Buffalo will be rewarded for their strong season with a non conference schedule including games against Wisconsin, North Carolina and Oklahoma. Also, Penn State... Awkward.

Florida: Champion: Southern Miss (2010 - Florida State)
Good Surprise - Florida International
Bar Surprise - Miami (FL)
Order of Finish - Southern Miss, Florida, Florida State, Florida International, South Florida, Miami (FL), Central Florida, Troy, Tulane, Florida Atlantic.
Note - No teams from Florida in the tournament this year, and the first C-USA team to make the tournament.

Gulf Coast: Champion: Texas (2010 - TCU)
Good Surprise - Texas
Bad Surprise - Louisiana-Lafayette
Order of Finish - Texas, LSU, Houston, Texas A&M, TCU, Louisiana Tech, SMU, North Texas, Rice, Louisiana-Lafayette
Note - What? I don't think the expected team has ever won this conference.

Midwest: Champion: Iowa (2010 - Iowa)
Good Surprise - Minnesota
Bad Surprise - Purdue
Order of Finish - Iowa, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Minnesota, Northern Illinois, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Ball State
Note - Of all conferences, the Midwest was one of only two to have a repeat champion (Great Plains being the other). And Minnesota went 6-6, which is preposterous.

Tobacco Road: Champion: Wake Forest (2010 - Tennessee)
Good Surprise - Vanderbilt
Bad Surprise - East Carolina
Order of Finish - Wake Forest, North Carolina, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, North Carolina State, Duke, Middle Tennessee State, Western Kentucky, Memphis, East Carolina
Note - This is a weird conference. It has a bunch of otherwise strong middle of the pack teams, but no true powerhouse. Good for Wake Forest.

California: Champion: USC (2010 - Stanford)
Good Surprise - Arizona
Bad Surprise - Stanford
Order of Finish - USC, Arizona State, Arizona, Stanford, Fresno State, UCLA, San Jose State, California, San Diego State, Hawaii
Note - I am not the NCAA, so USC is eligible. And last years national champs, Stanford, were only 6-6.

Great Plains: Champion: Oklahoma State (2010 - Oklahoma State)
Good Surprise - Missouri
Bad Surprise - The real life Cotton Bowl
Order of Finish - Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Tulsa, Arkansas, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Arkansas State
Note - Another top heavy conference, that should have been a greater dog fight and better in non conference.

Mountain West: Champion: Texas Tech (2010 - Baylor)
Good Surprise - Texas Tech
Bad Surprise - Wyoming
Order of Finish - Texas Tech, BYU, Baylor, Colorado, UTEP, Air Force, Wyoming, Colorado State, New Mexico State, New Mexico
Note - I guess I sort of thought Wyoming would be a top 4 team in this conference.

There were no winless or undefeated teams. The Gulf Coast conference was the top conference in terms of strength, which meant Texas was the overall number one seed. The new pods for next season will be California-Great Basin-Dixie-Mountain West
Great Plains-Midwest-Tobacco Road-New England
Gulf Coast-Appalachian-Great Lakes-Florida

Tobacco Road and Great Lakes swapped due to results in the tournament this year, otherwise all 12 Big 10 teams would have been in the same pod. Other than that, it's strangely geographically oriented, especially with all three western conferences in a pod.

All right, here are the results of the tournament. The Championship game, as with real life this year, would have been at the Orange Bowl.

FIRST ROUND
Peach Bowl - 9 Wake Forest 38 (OT) 8 Bowling Green 35 - Wake Forest was down 17 going into the 4th quarter, but came back to win a thriller.
Gator Bowl - 12 Texas Tech 31 5 Iowa 26 - Iowa has made the tournament 3 times, and is yet to win a game
Citrus/Capital One Bowl - 11 Oklahoma State 72 (5 OT), 6 Oregon 70 - Brandon Weeden threw for 7 TDs and 572 yards in this barn burner.
Liberty Bowl - 7 Southern Miss 46, 10 Penn State 40 - Brett Favre surely would have been in attendance. Southern Miss prevented what would have been a very awkward game between Penn State and USC, and were the only higher seed to win in the first round.

QUARTERFINALS
Orange Bowl - 1 Texas 27, 9 Wake Forest 17 - The Demon Deacon magic couldn't carry over to the quarters, and in their second game against a team wearing orange, they were manhandled.
Cotton Bowl - 4 Alabama 31, 12 Texas Tech 29 - This game was certainly a lot closer than it should have been, but Alabama couldn't slow down the spread.
Sun Bowl - 11 Oklahoma State 45, 3 Cincinnati 27 - Weeden went ahead and through for 4 more in this one, which went much more smoothly than the game against Oregon.
Fiesta Bowl - 2 USC 37, 7 Southern Miss 31 - Hey, not bad for the first Conference USA team in the tournament, winning a game and all.

SEMIFINALS
Rose Bowl - 4 Alabama 37, Texas 10 - As it turned out, Texas' only losses were to LSU and Alabama all season
Sugar Bowl - 11 Oklahoma State 34, 2 USC 31 - Weeden slowed down, only throwing 1 TD in the semifinal. Oklahoma State is the second team ('09 Florida) to reach the championship game after playing a first round game in the history of our sim.

CHAMPIONSHIP
Oklahoma State 49, Alabama 24 - In an offense vs defense struggle, the offense won. Brandon Weeden threw 6 more TDs, giving him 18 for the tournament. Oklahoma State, who felt they should have made the real national Championship Game ended up defeating the NCAA national Champion in our sim.

 There were a few quirks and peccadilloes with this simulation, like Clemson and Kansas State being dreadful, and a Iowa, Bowling Green and Texas winning their conferences, but in the end, the championship game was between two deserving teams that played everything out on the field, just like everyone wanted. Until next year, and congratulations, Oklahoma State!

Steve's 2011 College Football Sim

Happy New Year! Unlike 2 years ago, when I didn't manage to post the the results of my college football blowup sim until late February, or last year, where I posted on January 23, 13 days after the end of the actual season, I actually finished my college football simulation while bowls were still being played, on December 27. Believe it or not, I even finished my sim before Ryan! His post is coming soon. Here is a link to Ryan's results from last year. I'll take the liberty of letting you follow the link to his post where he links to the origin of the college football reorganization that we came up with and how our sim is structured. Here are some fun facts from my sim this year, then I'll get into the conference breakdowns:

- There seemed to be a lot more parity and crazy upsets this year.
- Only 3 of my conference champs went 9-0 in conference, while 7 were 8-1 and 2 were 7-2. Last year 7 went 9-0. Tiebreakers were needed in 3 conferences. Two were decided by the head to head winner and the other was decided by overall record (Midwest)
- Only 2 conferences saw the conference champ win by more than 1 game (Florida by 2 over Miami, Florida State, and UCF in Florida and Alabama by 3 over Georgia Tech and Georgia in Dixie)
- My strongest conference was the Gulf Coast, who went 65-55 overall.
- The worst conference was the Mountain West, who went 53-67.
- 3 of my 12 playoff teams from last year returned: Alabama, Boise State, and Michigan State
- Only 2 of the real-life 10 BCS teams made my tournament: Alabama and West Virginia, but 3 of them finished 2nd in their conference. Michigan was only 6-6 and Clemson was only 7-5 (but they started 6-0)
- 3 of last year's conference champs fell hard this year: Hawaii (2-10), Pittsburgh (4-8), and Air Force (4-8)
- There weren't any huge turnaround stories from conference champs this year. The closest were Houston and USC, who were only 6-6 last year. Syracuse was 8-4 (6-3) last year and this year that same overall record (with 1 more conference win) was enough for them to win New England
- 3 BCS schools finished dead last in their conference (Minnesota and Nebraska from the Big Ten and UCLA from the Pac-12)
- 4 of my conference champions are switching their real life conference in 2012 (Houston from C-USA to Big East, Boise State from Mountain West to Big East, West Virginia from Big East to Big 12, and Syracuse from Big East to ACC)
- The SEC had 3 teams represent them in the tournament (Alabama, Florida, Tennessee) and the ACC got shut out
- If you use next year's alignments, the SEC and Big 12 (Oklahoma, Texas Tech, West Virginia) would each have 3 teams, the Big East would still have 2 but totally different representatives (West Virginia and Syracuse changing to Houston and Boise State), the ACC would actually have a team (Syracuse), and the Mountain West/Conference USA planned conglomerate would be shut out
- I only had 2 12-0 teams overall: Florida and Alabama
- I did not have a single 0-12 team, but I had 2 1-11 teams: North Texas and UCLA. North Texas got their only win over Army in what was the first game of the 731 from my entire sim.

Here are the results, conference by conference by conference.

New England - Champion: Syracuse
This was a crazy conference this year. Syracuse opened the non-conference schedule by getting absolutely crushed by Texas A&M and UTEP and lost their first conference game to UConn, which made them 1-3. Meanwhile, defending champs Temple started 8-0 and were looking unstoppable. Temple lost 3 in a row to Boston College, Syracuse, and Maryland and all of the sudden Syracuse was in 1st place. Syracuse celebrated that by getting destroyed by Penn State. Five teams had a shot to win the conference going into the last week and Temple even got a nice win at Penn State to set themselves up, but Syracuse got the job done against Maryland to win the conference
Order of finish: Syracuse, Temple, UConn, Penn State, Boston College, Buffalo, Army, Maryland, Rutgers, Navy

Appalachian - Champion: West Virginia
The Mountaineers took this conference by going 8-1 and 10-2 overall, losing only to Cincinnati in the final conference game (they had already clinched at that point) and to Miami (FL) in non-conference play. They made short work of Virginia Tech in a showdown game with them, but Virginia Tech also had slips against Louisville and Purdue in non-conference play. Ohio had an impressive 8-4 record
Order of Finish: West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Ohio, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marshall, Virginia, Kentucky, Miami (OH)

Great Lakes - Champion: Michigan State
Unlike last year when they went 12-0, the Spartans took their lumps in non-conference play, going 0-3 against North Carolina, Boise State, and Alabama. They turned around and ran the table in this very weak conference, where their only real competition was Toledo (who went 8-1, but got blow out by Michigan State). Ohio State was terrible. They only went 4-8 overall and lost to Toledo 54-6.
Order of Finish: Michigan State, Toledo, Bowling Green, Michigan, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Ohio State, Akron, Kent State

Tobacco Road - Champion: Tennessee
Vanderbilt was initially the story of this conference, starting off with a 9-0 record. As the season went on, it became apparent that a Week 11 showdown between Tennessee and Vanderbilt was looming, and both teams actually lost in Week 10 before playing. Tennessee beat Vandy, and went on to win the conference with a 8-1 (10-2) record. It should be noted how horrible Memphis could be at times. The ended up going 3-9 but they were shut out 4 times and also lost the biggest blowout of the season, a 75-3 beating from Tennessee
Order of Finish: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Western Kentucky, East Carolina, NC State, Memphis, Middle Tennessee

Midwest - Champion: Iowa
This is another conference where it became apparent early on that Iowa and Wisconsin would have a showdown with the winner likely winning the conference. The only difference was Iowa went 3-0 against a relatively tricky non-conference schedule while Wisconsin suffered blowout losses to Florida State and Oklahoma State. When they met in Week 11, Wisconsin picked up the easy win. However, in the final game of the season, Wisconsin got stunned by Notre Dame and Iowa won, putting them both at 8-1 conference record, and since Iowa was 11-1 and Wisconsin was 9-3, Iowa got to go to the tournament. Purdue had a promising start, shockingly winning that game at Virginia Tech that I warned about last year, but they only ended up finishing 5-7, losing to Ball State and Northern Illinois along the way. Minnesota was awful, going 2-10, but somehow they beat Notre Dame in their only conference win.
Order of Finish: Iowa, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Ball State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northern Illinois, Minnesota

Florida - Champion: Florida
Florida, who were only 6-6 in real life, ran the table in this conference and had a perfect 12-0 season. They had their fair share of close wins along the way, never really looking like a dominant team. However, whatifsports always picked them to win in the end.
Order of Finish: Florida, Miami (FL), Florida State, UCF, Southern Miss, Florida International, South Florida, Troy, Tulane, Florida Atlantic

Great Plains - Champion: Oklahoma
This was a very interesting conference. Defending National Champs Oklahoma State started the season 5-0 absolutely running up scores on teams, while Oklahoma lost to Florida in non-conference play and Arkansas lost their conference opener to Tulsa. Then, Oklahoma State got upset by Iowa State and started putting up smaller scores each week. Oklahoma continued to win until getting beat by Arkansas in Week 10, who already had 2 conference losses at that point. That set up a virtual elimination game in Week 11 between Arkansas and Oklahoma State, with the winner being able to win the conference title with an Oklahoma State win over Oklahoma in Week 12. Arkansas ended up winning the game and were in position to steal the conference title, but Oklahoma ended up beating Oklahoma State 59-55 in a crazy 2 OT shootout. On a side note, Nebraska somehow went 2-10 overall, losing to Arkansas State at home and blowing a 20+ point 4th quarter lead to Tulsa. I think Bo Pelini got fired in the simulation world.
Order of Finish: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Tulsa, Kansas, Arkansas State, Kansas State, Nebraska

Dixie - Champion: Alabama
Yawn. Yet another boring 12-0 finish for Alabama. Clemson started 6-0 until losing 41-13 to the Tide, and only finished 7-5 overall. Georgia Tech finished 2nd with only a 6-3 conference record.
Order of Finish: Alabama, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Mississippi State, Clemson, Auburn, UAB, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Louisiana-Monroe

Gulf Coast - Champion: Houston
This was yet another crazy conference, where 6 teams were in the hunt for most of the season. Houston lost big at Texas early, but then turned it around and won at LSU the following week. LSU got beat by Louisiana-Lafayette in what may be the biggest upset ever in my sim. LSU also lost to SMU and Stanford in non-conference play. SMU was extremely good, finishing 10-2 overall and actually had a shot to win the conference if Houston had lost in the final week because Houston lost a crazy 5 OT shootout to Baylor in non-conference play, 64-62.
Order of Finish: Houston, SMU, LSU, TCU, Texas A&M, Texas, Louisiana Tech, Rice, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas

Mountain West - Champion: Texas Tech
Just like last year, this conference was just awful again. Texas Tech, Baylor, and BYU ended up finishing 7-2 in conference but BYU only finished 7-5 overall, eliminating them from the tiebreaker with the other 2 teams, who finished 8-4. Texas Tech beat Baylor in the final week of the season to win the conference.
Order of Finish: Texas Tech, Baylor, BYU, Colorado, Wyoming, Colorado State, UTEP, Air Force, New Mexico State, New Mexico

Great Basin - Champion: Boise State
Just like last year and seemingly every year, this conference came down to one game, Boise State at Oregon, which Boise won 37-20. However, unlike last year, both teams were not undefeated in conference play going into the game. Oregon was 8-0 while Boise slipped up against Nevada in Week 11. Boise State also lost to Alabama, but luckily for them Oregon also had a non-conference loss to 4-8 Ohio State, which allowed the head-to-head tiebreaker to take effect.
Order of Finish: Boise State, Oregon, Washington State, Nevada, Washington, Utah State, Oregon State, Idaho, Utah, UNLV

California - Champion: USC
Since we aren't the NCAA, USC has no sanctions and was allowed to participate in the tournament. They pretty much dominated the conference play but surprisingly lost to Fresno State on the road the week before beating Arizona to clinch the conference title. Not much else to say about this conference other than Fresno State and Arizona did surprisingly well, while UCLA was bad this year, but probably not 1-11 bad. Defending conference champ Hawaii was only 2-10.
Order of Finish: USC, Arizona, Stanford, Fresno State, California, San Diego State, San Jose State, Arizona State, Hawaii, UCLA

Well the tournament is set here are the results:
First Round
#8 Oklahoma vs. #9 Tennessee - Tennessee wins 19-13 - The playoffs kicked off with a scoreless first quarter. Each team traded field goals and Oklahoma took a 10-3 lead into the half. The game entered the 4th quarter tied at 13 but Derrick Brodus tacked on 2 more field goals for the Vols to give them the win. Landry Jones had a disappointing game for the Sooners, throwing 3 INTs
#5 Houston vs. #12 Texas Tech - Houston wins 41-3 - Good old fashioned Texas shootout here. The teams traded TDs until Tech kicked a field goal to be down 27-24 in the 3rd Quarter. Houston took a 34-24 lead into the 4th but Texas Tech responded with 2 TDs to take a 38-34 lead with 2:29 to go. However, the Cougars have Case Keenum, who successfully led Houston on a game winning TD drive, capped off with a Michael Hayes rushing TD with 13 seconds left. Keenum threw for 365 yards and 2 TDs
#6 Boise State vs. #11 Syracuse - Boise State wins 52-17 - Not surprisingly, this game was all Boise. The Orange came out early and punched the giants in the mouth, holding a 10-0 lead half way through the 2nd quarter. The Broncos responded by scoring 52 unanswered points which included 2 punt return TDs before Syracuse got a garbage time TD in the 4th. Doug Martin from Boise ran for 85 yards and 2 TDs.
#7 West Virginia vs. #10 Michigan State - Michigan State wins 30-23 - Another game with a slow first half, the Mountaineers took a 10-3 lead into the 2nd half. In the 2nd half, Kirk Cousins got the offense going and Michigan State took a 13-10 lead before West Virginia tied it going into the 4th. That's when things got exciting. Michigan State took a 23-13 lead with only 6 minutes to go after an Edwin Baker TD. West Virginia fought back and tied it with 1:56 to go. Cousins then led the Spartans on a game winning TD drive, connecting with Edwin Baker with 53 seconds to go.

Quarter Finals
#1 Alabama vs. #9 Tennessee - Alabama wins 67-16 - Alabama was just awesome here. After an opening FG by the Vols, the Tide answered with 24 points (3 Trent Richardson TDs). Tennessee finally scored a TD to make it 24-10, and Alabama again responded with 3 TDs to take a 40-10 lead early in the 3rd. Not to be outdone, Trent Richardson scored 2 more TDs. In total, Richardson ran for 235 yards and 5 TD, and AJ McCarron had 424 yards passing and 2 TDs
#4 Iowa vs. #5 Houston - Houston wins 44-27 - The cougars came out strong, taking an early 21-0 lead with 3 Case Keenum TD passes. From that point Iowa was trying to play catchup all day but only got within 11 points. Keenum threw for 312 yards and 4 TDs. In a losing effort, Iowa's Marcus Coker ran for 134 yards.
#3 USC vs. #6 Boise State - Boise State wins 45-41 - The Broncos came out on top of a great passing showdown between Kellen Moore and Matt Barkley. Boise took a 10-3 lead into the 2nd. USC bounced back with 3 TDs (2 of them long Curtis McNeal TD runs) in the 2nd to take a 24-17 lead going into the half. In the 3rd, USC increased their lead to 34-24. In the 4th, Kellen Moore came alive, throwing 2 quick TDs to put Boise ahead 38-34. USC responded with yet another McNeal TD run to take a 41-38 lead. Boise capped off the game with another Moore TD pass to DJ Harper. The Broncos D was able to get a turnover on downs in their own territory to hold the lead and get the win. Moore had 314 yards and 5 TDs. Barkley had 316 yards and 2 TDs. McNeal ran for 192 yards and had 3 TDs.
#2 Florida vs. #10 Michigan State - Florida wins 24-14 - The Florida D kept Kirk Cousins in check, and John Brantley managed to throw for 337 yards and 3 TDs. Cousins was only able to lead the Spartans on 1 scoring drive, because the other Michigan State TD was a punt return.

Semi-Finals
#1 Alabama vs. #5 Houston - Alabama wins 28-23 - Just like in the previous round, Trent Richardson was out of control. He ran for 139 yards and 2 TDs and had a receiving TD. Houston kept it close though. They actually took a 16-14 lead into the 4th quarter, but the Tide quickly scored 2 TDs to go up 28-16. Keenum managed to score another TD to make it 28-23 and Houston even got the ball back with 1:33 to go, but their final drive came up short on a hail mary in the endzone, putting Alabama in the championship game.
#2 Florida vs. #6 Boise State - Florida wins 31-29 - This was another exciting back and forth game. Florida started with a 14-7 lead but Boise answered with a Doug Martin TD. After the TD, they missed the extra point, leaving Florida ahead 14-13. Both teams scored TDs and FGs to leave Florida ahead 24-23. With 5:20 to go, Jeff Demps caught a TD from Brantley to put Florida up by 8 (thanks to the missed extra point). Boise responded with a Tyler Shoemaker TD with 2:29 to go, but their 2 point conversion attempt failed. The missed extra point cost Boise the game. There was a lot of offense in this game. Moore threw for 371 yards and Brantley for 335. Florida also ran the ball well. Chris Rainey had 141 yards and Jeff Demps had 104 yards 2 TDs, and a recieving TD.

The Championship Game
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Florida - Florida wins 37-13 - The semi-finals set up an interesting #1 vs. #2 national championship between the only 2 undefeated teams. As far as the result goes, wow. The Gators, who were only 6-6 in real life this year, are the national champs of my sim. This game was no contest. After an early Trent Richardson TD, the Gators answered with 37 unanswered points led by the unstoppable rushing attack of Chris Rainey (130 yards, TD) and Jeff Demps (110 yards, 2 TDs). John Brantley also threw for 380 yards and a TD. From our past experience, for some odd reason usually teams that do well in our sim end up being national title contenders the folowing year (like Oklahoma State, who won my sim last year) so maybe the Gators will be back in the national title picture next year.


So, just like last year, these sims are time consuming, but a lot of fun! I'm looking forward to doing this again next year. Go put some money on the Gators to make a BCS bowl.

The problem with an 8 team playoff

The fundamental issues with the BCS is that it provides an unfair advantage to several conferences, and that individuals can skew who is involved in the championship. Ultimately, the game wouldn't be decided on the field, as it allegedly is in other sports.
With the onslaught against the BCS rightfully underway once again, many people are proposing their self described perfect solution of an 8 team playoff. Most of these solutions involve selecting the top 8 BCS teams, or the BCS conference champions, and the top two at larges. In those cases, the tournament would include either a set of LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Oregon, Arkansas, Boise State, and Kansas State, or LSU, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Wisconsin, Clemson, West Virginia, Alabama and Stanford.
So I ask you, what exactly have we solved with EITHER solution? Via the first method, the SEC gets three teams, a Boise State team that couldn't even win the MWC gets in, the Big Ten gets left out and it's overly reliant on early season perception that tends to favor certain teams regardless of their quality. The second solution, again, gives unfair advantages to certain conferences. West Virginia, because they won a terrible Big East would get in ahead of TCU and Southern Miss, who were possibly better teams in what may have been better conferences.
So, no, you can't just stop at 8 teams. If you want to create a tournament with the purpose of fairness across college football, an 8 team tournament is a failure. If you create a tournament, the only way to go is to include all 11 conference champions as a starting point. The advantage of a bye week will subsequently be transferred to the best teams, but at least teams that have done what was asked of them, by winning their conference, will have a shot.
I'm generally opposed to at-large additions to a tournament, because it introduces the possibility of objectivity in helping to decide a national champion, but if the desire is there for a 16 team tournament, then I would be on board with this far more than I am with the oft proposed 8 team ideas.
And YES, this is an introductory post to the Victoria Times football simulation, which will be underway within the next week or so (as soon as Whatifsports has their 2011 rosters online). As a very brief reminder, it is a simulation of an idealized NCAA where conferences are geographic, and consist of 10 teams each (12 conferences total) with every conference champion entering into a post season tournament, ensuring that everything is decided based on what happened on the field. Look forward to that over the next month or so.

This really isn't the best anti-BCS year

Before I get started, I just want to point out that I also endorse the idea of a college football playoff, so don't read this post into a debate against that. What I am going to assert is that if you are going to say that a college football playoff is the way to go, this is not the season to pick that battle.
You see, this year, it seems as though LSU is the best team in the country. The next closest teams are Alabama and Arkansas. Alabama has already lost to LSU and LSU has the chance to (and in my opinion probably will) beat Arkansas on Saturday. They beat Oregon, who beat Stanford, who is one of the top teams from other conferences. Oklahoma State lost to a miserable Iowa State team. Virginia Tech might be the highest remaining team that is in the top 10 who hasn't had a shot at LSU, or lost to a team that did. And nobody really thinks Virginia Tech is the 2nd best team in the nation, do they?
So yes, you can talk about the confusion in the polls and the mire behind the Tigers, but really, this season is one that could have been satisfactorily been solved using the old method, before even the BCS came to be. Everyone knows the LSU Tigers are the best team in the country. Instead of wasting energy on complaining about this season, how about trying to think of a thorough, fair solution that will work for every season going forward?

Allow me some schadenfreude

Every single year, people jump on Big Ten teams for their soft non conference schedule, and complains when a Big Ten team goes undefeated and ends up in the national title game. It happens every time. On the opposite end of the spectrum, people complain about Boise State going undefeated and not making it in. I understand that it has something to do with people and their desire for a playoff, because everyone has a poorly thought out plan that they would love to see enacted.
I'm not here to write about the desire for a playoff, I think that's a universal goal. What I am writing about is the double standard. Someone complains about generic Big Ten team going undefeated (they played a weak non conference schedule!) when they play in one of the top 4-5 conferences in the country, even in their worst years. People laud Boise State's accomplishments when they go undefeated, and they play in one of the worst conferences in the country. Well, I suppose they tried to get into a better conference this year. The plaudits will be somewhat less annoying this year when they roll through the Mountain West. Wait. What's that?

HA! Screw you, Boise State!

Once again, the Victoria Times staff has the best solution

We've been running our Victoria Times college football simulation for 3 years, and this will be the fourth. With conference realignment running rampant, it's still not any more likely that the BCS will be scrapped for a tournament.

But that's not why I came. One of the issues I have always had with tournaments was the assertion that there would be wild card or at large bids.How can you win a national title if you can't even win your conference? Or division?

This came to a head two years ago when the Big 12 South was hotly contested by Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. As luck would have it, though, all three were in different Victoria Times conferences, and all were eligible for the post season tournament, if they won their respective conferences, proving once again that ours is the best solution. Of course, that year TCU, Missouri and BYU won the VT conferences. Oops.

We are in a similar situation this year. Alabama and LSU are 1-2 in the BCS and are thus far tied in the SEC west. Now, it doesn't seem very likely that the two teams would have a chance to both play the national championship game, even though they might be the top teams in the land. Fortunately, once again, we have the chance to put two elite teams from the same division in the VT tournament. Alabama and LSU are in the Dixie and Gulf Coast conferences, respectively. Of course, if this goes the same way it did last time we had this situation, Louisiana Tech and Auburn will make it to the tournament.

Stay tuned for December when we run the simulation to find out what happens! Stanford is the defending champ.

What now for the Big Ten?

With the word that Syracuse and Pitt are headed for the ACC, it is just further evidence that the NCAA as we know it is falling apart, headed for the 4 super conference structure. Those conferences, apparently, are the SEC, ACC, PAC 12 and local favorite, the Big Ten.. Many other conferences are figured out in terms of expansion. The Pac 12 will add Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, as well as, perhaps, Texas Tech and another team. The ACC, already at 14 with the addition of Pitt and Syracuse, may end up with Texas as well, which will need to take 1 more to make it an even 16. The SEC is already nabbing Texas A&M and Missouri will probably follow. They too will look to add another pair of teams.
The important thing for the Big Ten is this: three of the teams they thought they would add may end up in the ACC. They will likely continue to press for the New York market for their Big Ten Network. This means Rutgers is all but guaranteed to eventually receive an offer. Notre Dame will continue to be pressured. Other than that... Connecticut? One of the Kansas schools? The Big Ten may look very different very soon, but I don't think anyone will be able to anticipate where it is going.

The danger of not thinking things through

I've often said my issue with going to a playoff system in college football is that people are so eager for playoffs, a good plan is yet to have bee presented. I will admit that even the Victoria Times solution, reorganization into 12 conference tournaments with the champions of said conferences entering a 12 team conference. It addresses some things that I have an issue with in most plans: It gives everyone a chance, makes the regular season matter for every team and does away with any influence of the polls or media. The problem, of course, is that teams like, say, Colorado wouldn't go for it, now that they are in the Pac-12. They have a stated desire to play on the west coast, where recruiting is plentiful. In our geographic realignment, they would play schools essentially in the middle of nowhere.
All that said, this piece by Sam Eifling is also met by logistical oversight. He makes the argument FOR moving to the 4 superconferences that many have stated they expect to see coming by showing the cupcake games some teams have played this year so far. I have two issues with his piece:
1) Eifling's examples include 6 non FBS schools, which takes away from his "BCS conference schools are better" argument. Of course those schools are worse. They aren't even at the same level.
2) He fails to note that the real issue is that, of the FBS schools refuse to schedule the GOOD non BCS schools. He introduces matchups like Oregon vs LSU, but he doesn't point out that nobody wants to play a school like Houston, for fear they might get beaten by an up and comer.
I understand the allure to playoff enthusiasts of the idea of super conferences. I worry that we will never see a school remake it's reputation as a football powerhouse like Utah, TCU or Boise State ever again. Teams like Houston and Boise State will be left the cupcakes in the NCAA, and be forced to play them across their entire schedule. Good football schools will be forced to become cupcakes too.

Ahhh college football

Football. Gives you the warm fuzzies, no? Anyways, without real interpretation, and wanting to give you some substance, here are my predictions for the Big 10 and then the BCS bowls:
Leaders
Wisconsin
Penn State
Ohio State
Illinois
Indiana
Purdue (Purdue is so bad, you guys)
Legends
Michigan
Nebraska
Michigan State
Northwestern
Minnesota
Iowa

I went a little crazy in the Legends conference, didn't I? I just wanted to be different.... Anywho, here are the BCS bowls (oh, and Wisconsin wins the Big Ten championship)
Keeping in mind, I think that, in the past, the Victoria Times sim has done an excellent job prognosticating breakout teams the following year, there might be a surprise in here for you.
Rose Bowl: Florida State-Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: Georgia - Texas A&M
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech - Louisville
Sugar Bowl: Alabama - Michigan
BCS Championship: Oklahoma - Stanford

I am predicting Georgia to win tonight and Boise State, despite their talent, to be shut out from the BCS. Major conferences would be more than happy to let a 2nd ACC team in rather than Boise State. Michigan, I think, will need only the most tenuous grasp on BCS eligibility to get invited because they travel so well.

The Victoria Times College Football preview

I'm not going to get too far into detail on this, mostly because I haven't been to Spring Practices, I haven't stayed abreast of recruiting news and I am decidedly not an expert. This is just me talking here. The teams that I will cover are the ones that are of most importance to the Victoria Times. Purdue, Minnesota, North Dakota State, and this year's wild card, Wyoming.

Purdue: The Boilers, I think, are in a lot of trouble. Their first two choices for QB are injured (ACL's, of course) and one of those guys is entangled in the Miami fiasco. Still, Purdue has 15 returning starters, so this will tell us a lot about Danny Hope as a recruiter and coach. I say he sucks, but we will find out on the field, I suppose. If there is any light with this team, it's that they might have a decent ground attack. If Ralph Bolden stays healthy, then that is good news.

Minnesota: I am much higher on the Gophers this year. They won't be good, but I like their future. Jerry Kill seems to be what the team needs, and there are some athletes on the roster, like Marqueis Gray that might be able to surprise some weaker teams in the Big Ten. And then going forward, I think the Gophers will be a Bowl team for a while. Not this year though.

North Dakota State: I can say, with all honesty, that I know nothing about NDSU or their chances. I DO know that there are some outlets picking them to finish 2nd in their conference! They might be the best team listed here

Wyoming: The Cowboys have THREE freshmen competing to be the starting quarterback. Yikes. They are also playing in the one year that the Mountain West might be at it's toughest, with both Boise State AND TCU in conference. Still, they might pull off a win or two, like against, I don't know, UNLV (who they will play while I am there, and lost by almost 40 at Wisconsin today)