NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 3

Week 3 is in the books and only 3 3-0 teams are left standing. Those teams include the defending Super Bowl champs and 2 teams that haven't made the playoffs since the 90s. What's going on here? The Lions beat another admittedly bad team in the Vikings but the Bills knocked off New England for the first time in 8 years. Those 3 teams make up the top 3 again this week, with the Lions hanging onto 1st, the Packers 2nd (up from 4th), and the Bills 3rd (up from 6th). The Ravens and Giants also moved into the top 5 as the best 2-1 teams so far (with the 49ers at #6?!? ok...). The Redskins, Jets, and Patriots fell out of the top 5 after losses to the Cowboys, Raiders, and Bills.

In the bottom 5, the horrible, horrible Chiefs actually moved up to #31 this week after their close loss. Replacing them are the Rams, who got blown out by the Ravens, have a ton of injuries, are 0-3, and yet are still most people's favorites to win the NFC West. The Dolphins fell down to #30, while the Colts and Vikings also joined the bottom 5 for dropping to 0-3. The Seahawks and Panthers climbed out of the bottom 5 by getting their first wins of the season.

The biggest gainers this week were the Panthers, who got their first win and jumped over a bunch of bad teams, moving up 8 spots. The Browns and Chargers also moved up 7 spots for improving to 2-1. The biggest losers were the Bengals, who got shut down by the 49ers and fell 11 spots, and the Patriots, who dropped 10 spots after their loss to the Bills.

Here are the full ranks:
1. Lions - 86.86 - Even
2. Packers - 81.34 - +2
3. Bills - 78.28 - +3
4. Ravens - 68.44 - +4
5. Giants - 67.90 - +6
6. 49ers - 67.43 - +6
7. Redskins - 66.58 - -2
8. Texans - 64.20 - -1
9. Cowboys - 63.49 - +5
10. Raiders - 63.16 - +3
11. Jets - 61.81 - -9
12. Buccaneers - 61.54 - +3
13. Patriots - 60.84 - -10
14. Titans - 58.19 - +3
15. Saints - 55.86 - +3
16. Browns - 54.78 - +7
17. Chargers - 51.29 - +7
18. Steelers - 49.58 - +4
19. Bears - 44.69 - -9
20. Bengals - 43.90 - -11
21. Panthers - 38.78 - +8
22. Cardinals - 37.11 - -6
23. Eagles - 35.97 - -4
24. Falcons - 35.73 - -3
25. Broncos - 34.63 - -5
26. Seahawks - 32.73 - +5
27. Jaguars - 32.69 - -2
28. Vikings - 28.22 - -2
29. Colts - 20.42 - -2
30. Dolphins - 18.40 - -2
31. Chiefs - 13.28 - +1
32. Rams - 13.22 - -2

NFL Computerized Power Ranks: Week 1

Over the past 4 years, after each week in the NFL season we have posted power rankings. In case you haven't seen it before, unlike most power rankings, which are based mostly on opinion, ours are based on cold, hard numbers. Basically, I came up with a formula that calculates power rankings each week based on record, recent success, strength of schedule, strength of division, offensive and defensive rankings, and the all important turnover ratio. In the past, the ranks have been a pretty decent way to predict games, and usually the Super Bowl champ turned out on top at the end of the year, which is always good. Usually around week 7 or 8, I use it to project playoff positioning, which has worked out better I expected.

So it is what it is. If nothing else, its a fun way to further analyze the NFL and imagine crazy playoff matchups. What it isn't is a good way to judge good teams after week 1, as we've seen some future bottom dwellers have a nice win in week 1 or 2, only to fall hard.

We may have this situation this year, as our #1 teams after week 1 our (drumroll) the Balitmore Ravens and Buffalo Bills! Why are they at the top? It's pretty simple. They both had the most dominant wins in Week 1 as the Ravens forced 7 turnovers to blow out the defending AFC Champs and the Bills absolutely destroyed the defending AFC West Champ Chiefs in Kansas City. Our 3rd place team is team that also hasn't made the playoffs in over a decade, the Lions. They are ranked high because my "recent success" input includes some data from the previous season at the end, and if you didn't notice, the Lions finished 2010 red hot and kept it up to start 2011. The defending Super Bowl Champ Packers and perennial contender Patriots round out the Week 1 top 5.

One funny thing about the bottom 5 is that they include 4 playoff teams from last year. The Steelers are sitting at #29 and Chiefs at #31 for the reasons mentioned above. The Saints are #28 despite their exciting loss on Thursday and the Falcons are sitting at #32 after getting pounded by the Bears. Both teams finished last season with a bad stretch run and horrible playoff losses. The only non-2010 playoff team in the playoff team is the Browns, who sucked at the end of 2010 and kept it alive by losing the Bengals on Sunday, who I predicted to finish 0-16 in my NFL preview (got that one wrong).

Here are the full ranks
1. (tie) Ravens - 79.03
1. (tie) Bills - 79.03
3. Lions - 78.79
4. Packers - 77.50
5. Patriots - 75.97
6. Jets - 75.00
7. Bears - 73.31
8. Bengals - 72.26
9. Raiders - 70.32
10. 49ers - 70.16
11. (tie) Redskins - 66.94
11. (tie) Texans - 66.94
13. Chargers - 66.13
14. Cardinals - 64.35
15. Eagles - 62.90
16. Jaguars - 57.10
17. Vikings - 39.27
18. Cowboys - 37.90
19. Titans - 36.13
20. Colts - 35.65
21. Dolphins - 32.58
22. Giants - 31.61
23. Buccaneers - 31.29
24. Broncos - 30.65
25. Seahawks - 30.48
26. Rams - 30.00
27. Panthers - 28.87
28. Saints - 26.94
29. Steelers - 26.61
30. Browns - 25.65
31. Chiefs - 22.26
32. Falcons - 19.84